Could the Opposition Form a Government?

I’ve seen quite a bit of speculation this morning regarding how the opposition – the Liberals in particular – should react to the Conservatives’ attempt to eliminate public financing. Some are suggesting that the opposition parties form a united front and, following a vote of non-confidence on the measure, attempt to form some type of coalition government.

Though the political ramificationsof such a maneuver would be fascinating, such a result is unlikely. The only precedent I can see for such action in Canada would be the King-Byng Affair of 1926. But the context in this case is very different. Though King formed a minority government after the 1925 election, the Conservatives under Arthur Meighen actually had the largest number of seats in the House of Commons, 116 to King’s 99. Nevertheless, the Meighen minority lasted only a few days.

If the Liberals do the right thing and oppose these cuts, along with the rest of the opposition, I suspect we are more likely to see an outcome such as this:

Canada’s constitutional law dealing with minority governments was altered in 1968 when Pearson’s government was unexpectedly defeated on a matter of confidence. While this should have led to an immediate dissolution of parliament, none of the parties were ready, and Pearson was in the process of being replaced as leader of the Liberals. By mutual agreement among the party leaders, a new motion was passed that retroactively declared that the budgetary matter on which the government was defeated was not a matter of confidence, setting a new precedent.

Of course, just because no real precedent exists does not mean that the opposition theoretically could not ask to form a government. The Liberals could conceivably work with the NDP,  though the question of who would lead such a coalition is likely to be contentious. Still, these parties could not govern without the support of the Bloc, and the wisdom and practicality of incorporating them into a coalition government is certainly a big question.

I don’t envy the decisions that Stephane Dion will be making today. I do, however, agree with James Curran that the Liberals are in this mess partially because of the decision to hold another leadership contest.

Update: CalgaryGrit has a good idea about how this proposal could be amended. Also, a well articulated defence of public financing from a Conservative perspective can be found here.